Rural Voters and Farmers Are Losing Confidence in Trump — And the Numbers Show It

For decades, rural America has been the bedrock of Republican electoral power — but something is shifting. A new national poll shows that farmers and rural voters, once among President Trump's most reliable supporters, are now disapproving of his performance at rates that could reshape the political landscape heading into this year's midterm elections.

A Fox News poll released this week found that Trump's net approval rating among rural voters has swung 34 points in the wrong direction since early 2025 — dropping from +20 to -14. Among rural white voters specifically, the slide is nearly as dramatic, falling 33 points from +27 to -6. Both groups now sit at their lowest approval levels in the entire polling series.

What the Poll Actually Found

The survey was conducted May 15–18, 2026, among 1,002 registered voters nationwide. It was jointly run by Beacon Research, a Democratic-leaning firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-leaning firm — a bipartisan setup designed to reduce partisan bias. Respondents were reached by landline, cellphone, and text-to-web online surveys, all drawn randomly from a national voter file. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Trump's overall approval rating came in at 39 percent — just one point above the lowest level recorded in this polling series. But the more telling story is in the subgroups. Rural voters, rural white voters, and even Republicans — groups that have historically anchored his support — are all showing signs of erosion.

On the economy, just 29 percent of all voters approved of how Trump is handling it, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters tracked almost identically: 30 percent approved, 70 percent disapproved. Inflation was the single worst-rated issue tested, with only 24 percent of all voters approving and 76 percent disapproving. Among rural voters, 28 percent approved and 71 percent disapproved.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducts the survey alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, put it plainly.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

Even issues where Trump has traditionally polled well are weakening. Border security — once a reliable strength — has tipped into net negative territory nationally for the first time this term, with 49 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. Rural voters still lean positive on the issue at 54–45, but the national trend is notable.

Farmers Are Feeling It Most

Behind the polling numbers is a farm economy under serious stress. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm bankruptcies surged 46 percent in 2025 compared to the prior year. In 2026, conditions have gotten harder. The escalation of conflict with Iran has pushed up the cost of fertilizer and diesel fuel — two of the biggest expenses in agricultural operations — squeezing farms that were already operating on thin margins.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, described the situation in direct terms when speaking with MS Now.

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson said, explaining that his family has had to cut back on fertilizer use because "we just don't have the margin."

Nelson added: "It's tough, you know, very tough on us," as his multigenerational farm faces the possibility of bankruptcy.

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder shared a similarly bleak picture in comments provided by Farm Action from an interview with US Farm Report.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said. "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade dynamics are adding to the pressure. Reduced demand from China for U.S. agricultural exports — soybeans in particular — has left many growers with weaker prices and fewer dependable buyers. Adding to farmers' unease, Trump recently defended Chinese purchases of American farmland during his trip to Beijing, arguing that restricting foreign ownership would lower land values. The comment landed poorly among farming communities already concerned about foreign control of agricultural land.

The White House Pushes Back

Administration officials disputed the significance of the poll results. White House spokesman Kush Desai said the U.S. economy has remained "resilient" under Trump and argued that "as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term."

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to the 2024 election as the more meaningful measure of public support, stating that "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda." Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and that the results so far are "just the beginning."

Still, the numbers reflect a real and measurable shift in one of the most politically important voter blocs in the country. Rural communities — and the farmers within them — have long provided the margins that decide close House and Senate races. Even modest changes in turnout or enthusiasm in these areas could carry significant weight when voters head to the polls later this year.